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A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.

Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the other's positions."

Appeal for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."